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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have piled up.

According to the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.