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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.